Important Weekly Update 44

 The VIX in uptrend and changing pictures for more Sectors this week!

Last week we noticed changes in trends, in the Consumer Cyclical Sector and Consumer Defensive Sector and Energy Sector. This week the bearish signals grew stronger in every Sector except in  the Communications Services Sector. That is the only Sector that is positive in all timeframes at the moment. It also renewed it´s Daily trend and the stocks are doing well here. In the Sven Connection Premium I will suggest a couple of Stocks that you can have a look at.

The Sector list have a lot of red Daily trends now. No less than eight Sectors are Red in Daily. The Financial Services Sector and Consumer Cyclical Sector are at 0. The worst performer this week is Energy Sector. As I discussed last week this is not a good sign for the Stock Market. Whatever happens in the election we still have a world in chaos and war. That creates doubt in the Markets. 

S&P 500

Weekly

This chart is well past it´s best before date. Since Covid it took 1,8 year before the correction from January to October 2022. The index went down -27%. Since the bottom in 2022 to today the rise has been going for 2,1 year. If we then look at the MA20 and MA50 of the S&P500 we can see that they are close to be broken to the downside. The MA20 already is and MA50 is support. It would not take much to break this and send the market lower. To buy now is not to prefer. Investors forget. Psychology works that way. Humans think the market will continue higher, especially when the talk goes on about the liquidity and rate cuts and the end of QT. QT is still 125B a month. The expectations of the pace in rate cuts are according to Bloomberg 125 basis points for 2025 to be compared with 175 a month ago. How much can the Stock Market withstand?

S&P500

Daily

VIX-X

CBOE Market Volatility Index

Daily

VIX is now at resistance where it has been several times before. It takes a trigger to go above that but we don´t know what that might be? I made changes this week in the portfolio. Taking profit and I will continue next week. The thing with Stocks right now is the algorithms and how certain stocks behave. Some stock shoot up like rockets and small investors pile in to try to catch some of the momentum, making short term gains. Like gambling. These folks do not know anything about Trend. Because there are lots of investors in the North American Stock Markets and lots of capital Stocks can make huge moves in a short timespan. However if the Markets crack down these investors will be stuck with losses.

Have we seen this before in History? Yes. And here we are at a new but different time with new and different set of conditions.

 

Article about the housing market and consumers: Housing and Economy

This was a lengthy update but I consider it important.

This week in Premium I will show some trades and update the Completed Trades section!

Changes will be made to the portfolio and we will disect the Sector Trends.

Also we will Trade! We will maybe do the highly risky Short Term Trend Trade! That is serious business, not a game.

Stay focused now, limit risk overall.

Best regards,

Trader Sven

XAU at resistance

XAU

Weekly 

The XAU index is at resistance and the rise during 2024 is being put to a test. Will it clear resistance and head for higher ground? (ref. Johnny Cash "Hey Porter") The Gold/Silver Stocks have been good performers this year. We believe increased liquidity will continue to support Gold and Silver and the related Stocks. Every Bullmarket is confronted and set-backs occur but the longterm approach is Higher.

Weekly Update 43

 This week´s update is published late Sunday due to some important personal activities this weekend.

Weekly 43

The small caps still underperform, and Mag 7 and the Nasdaq are going like the train. Nasdaq Composite performed well mainly because of strong reports from TSLA and ServiceNow and the new ATH in NVDA.

The coming week more reports come in this busy report period in the markets. For example, Google on Tuesday, Apple and Amazon on Thursday and on Friday it is Oil-day with Exxon Mobil and Chevron. Friday has also an important Nonfarm Payrolls report and job numbers.

S&P500 declined this week driven by rising bond yields that are driven by strong economic data. Gold closed at 2748 $/oz and Silver at 33.70 $/oz. Gold has a nice-looking chart and has gone up a lot. Silver can go down to test the 30 $ level and if it does it´s a buy.

As for trading we had nice gains in XOM, GEVO and UEC. Gains from  +6 to +87%. We added a few stocks and now start monitoring a new group of stocks, the Tankship business.

GEVO Inc

Weekly

The GEVO stock did breakout after a long time in the basement..

The Sectors:

We still have four strong Sectors with positive time frames all over: The Communication Services Sector, Utilities Sector, Technology Sector and Financial Services.

The Consumer Defensive Sector has turned negative in the Daily but still is positive in longer time frames.

The Energy Sector is improving again and aims at leaving the negative Daily. The Longer Monthly time frame is positive, and this Sector is the best performing Sector since the Covid crisis with an over 400% rise.

The Consumer Cyclical Sector is near breakdown, and I expect this sector to be the first to give up once a correction begins.

Healthcare Sector have some stocks that make incredible moves but at a very very high risk.

Real Estate Sector, Basic Materials Sector and Industrials Sector are still positive in Weekly and Monthly but lacks a confirmed positive Daily time frame.